War or peace

Will there be a war between Iran and the US or can peace prevail through negotiation? 

Since Donald Trump has assumed the US presidency this question has become acute. Given the inherent dangers this question alludes to, it is of critical importance not only for Iran, Palestine and the whole of the Middle East but also for the entire world.

Since the ceasefire in Gaza, hopes for a less contentious Middle East have risen.  Despite some reservations, an atmosphere of seeking peace (or at least avoiding hot war) is gradually growing. To be sure, we must await the results of the upcoming Trump/Netanyahu meeting. 

In the first two weeks of his presidency President Trump issued a flurry of executive orders covering a vast variety of issues. In the international arena, tariffs on Canada, Mexico, China and possibly the EU are the most high profile of these. Together with his policy of deporting millions of undocumented workers, his threats against Panama (and its canal), and his declared ambition to buy Greenland together these amount to challenging the entire world – friend and foe alike. His promise to deliver peace in Ukraine within three months of assuming office also remains outstanding.  

There seem to be too many issues on President Trump’s desk.  Is it too much to hope for that therefore contention with Iran can be left for another time? 

Since the ceasefire in Lebanon and the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, Iranian influence in the Middle East has declined dramatically.  Within Western circles, two opposing arguments have been brewing.  Some say that the precipitous decline in Iran’s regional influence means the danger from the Islamic Republic has dropped correspondingly and therefore can be ignored, at least for now. 

Others argue this decline has brought the Islamic Republic of Iran to its weakest point ever and therefore this is the optimum time to attack Iran. At the time of this writing, it is not clear which argument will come out on top.

At the same time, the leadership of the Islamic Republic is faced with the same dilemma of how to respond to the US and its allies.  Its unprecedented unpopularity at home, together with Iran’s truly dire economic crisis have turned this dilemma into a make-or-break moment. 

There are indications that the US and Iran are haggling under the table. (Open negotiations would be a likely indication that an agreement is imminent). Let us hope that peace can win this round.