The war on Gaza appears to be nearing a tenuous end. Two years and a day ago, Hamas broke through Israel’s supposedly “impenetrable” border a disastrous act not only for Israelis but, above all, for Gazan Palestinians.

During these two years, several ceasefires were agreed upon, only to be broken by Israel. This time, however, Western media suggest the truce may endure, perhaps even evolving into a more lasting peace. When the ceasefire was announced, Gazans celebrated. After two years of bombardment and starvation, tens of thousands dead and many more wounded, and thousands of children maimed, they have still not relinquished their hopes for peace and freedom.

Israel has failed to crush the will of Gaza’s people. For two years, its military occupied nearly every corner of the strip, yet freed neither its hostages nor destroyed Hamas. Like the Mongol hordes of old, the Israeli army devastated much of Gaza, but its social fabric though torn endures. Gazan resilience remains stronger than Israeli brutality.

The ceasefire is based on Trump’s 20-point plan, divided into three phases. Phase One involves the exchange of hostages (dead or alive) by Hamas for 250 Palestinian prisoners serving life sentences and 1,700 other Gazans held by Israel. Israel is also to lift its blockade on food, medicine, and essential goods, and withdraw its troops from populated areas of Gaza.

This phase also calls for the disarmament of Hamas, though Hamas has stated it will surrender only its “offensive weapons” (such as rockets and missiles), not its fighters’ personal arms. In Phases Two and Three, Israel is to withdraw further, though it will retain a narrow security strip inside Gaza’s perimeter, shrinking Gaza’s already confined territory even more.

These later stages also address reconstruction and vaguely refer to the possibility of a Palestinian state. The language, however, is opaque and open to wide interpretation, leaving room for Israeli manipulation. Israel signed the Oslo Accords in 1993, yet more than three decades later, a Palestinian state remains elusive. The current Israeli cabinet can easily impose the most aggressive and colonial reading of this new document. The world has not yet seen the end of this tragic saga.

With this ceasefire, Israel—and the United States have achieved most, though not all, of their aims. Israel vowed to obliterate Hamas, but that proved impossible; this very agreement was negotiated, in part, with Hamas representatives. Israel also dreamed of expelling all Gazans to create what Trump once called a “Gazan Riviera,” a plan that has now collapsed into fantasy.

Why, then, did Trump compel Netanyahu to sign? While Washington and Tel Aviv share many objectives, their interests diverge at critical points. Israel’s growing international isolation has become a burden the U.S. can no longer afford. Trump’s main strategic focus lies elsewhere: the military and economic competition with China. Israel’s endless war had become a costly distraction.

Meanwhile, America’s Arab allies, especially Saudi Arabia and the UAE, seek technological and economic transformation. For their ambitions to succeed, the region must achieve long-term stability. Israel’s relentless expansionism has deprived both the region and the U.S. of the peace they need.

Trump’s personal role in pushing Israel toward this deal is notable. No other U.S. president could have applied such pressure and survived the backlash of the Israeli lobby. Anyone else would have been branded antisemitic but no one dares level that charge against Trump.

In conclusion, two points stand out. First, the future of this ceasefire remains uncertain but even fragile calm is better than war. Negotiation is definitely preferable to bullets and bombs.

Yet can this truly be called “peace”? As long as Israel clings to its expansionist ambitions, the Middle East cannot know lasting stability. For genuine peace to take root, the balance of power both regionally and globally must change. Palestine remains pivotal to that transformation, and Palestinians must be allowed to rebuild their society socially, economically, and politically to meet the challenges of the 21st century.